| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | CHANGES | COMPS | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Warner Bros Discovery | Paramount Skydance | US | 651 | 12.54 | 7.85 | 9.79 | 26.30 | 31.00 | 147.2% | 70.2% | 62.8% | 17.9% | 18.8% | 35.6% | 80% | 77% | 13,722 | 2025-09-10 | 3Q26 | 2027-01-31 | 7% | 2% |
ATUS
DISH
CABO
CMCSA
43%
6758.T
CMCSA
LGF-A
DIS
29%
CMCSA
DIS
NFLX
28%
|
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 504 | 260.32 | 332.01 | 339.85 | 335.48 | 380.95 | 46.3% | 1.0% | -1.3% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 7% | — | 13,342 | 2025-07-16 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-11-15 | -3% | -3% |
CNI
CSX
AZJ.AX
CP
|
| eBay | GameStop | US | 400 | 104.07 | 104.12 | 104.12 | 114.01 | 125.00 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | — | 47% | 47% | 5,398 | 2026-05-02 | — | — | 4% | 10% |
4755.T
ETSY
BABA
SHOP.TO
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 233 | 61.73 | 60.03 | 63.88 | 69.17 | 71.15 | 15.3% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 82% | 61% | 4,201 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-09 | -4% | -17% |
FE
SO
GNE
DUK
|
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 218 | 35.11 | 54.40 | 54.88 | 60.24 | 66.94 | 90.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 42.5% | 47% | 83% | 3,689 | 2025-09-08 | 2H26 | 3Q26 | 1% | 2% |
SCCO
TKO.TO
FM.TO
0358.HK
61%
HINDZINC.NS
NEXA
S32.AX
TV.TO
39%
|
| Axalta Coating Systems | AkzoNobel | US | 68 | 28.18 | 30.23 | 30.72 | 35.81 | 45.77 | 62.4% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 27.8% | 24.6% | 74.1% | 36% | 37% | 2,737 | 2025-11-17 | 4Q26 | 2026-11-30 | 1% | 19% |
PPG
SHW
RPM
|
| Allied Gold | Zijin Gold International | Canada | 58 | 41.75 | 28.77 | 30.00 | 25.44 | 44.00 | 5.4% | -13.1% | -17.9% | 73.0% | 73.0% | — | — | — | 2,645 | 2026-01-23 | 3Q26 | 2026-07-29 | -0% | — |
AU
AEM
EVN.AX
100%
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 19 | 22.20 | 23.64 | 24.57 | 25.19 | 35.00 | 57.7% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 38.9% | 42.4% | 134.1% | 14% | 6% | 1,642 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 1% | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 19 | 181.60 | 342.55 | 342.55 | 318.40 | 328.03 | 68.4% | -7.6% | -7.6% | -3.9% | 11.4% | 18.0% | — | — | 1,080 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -6% | — |
TTI
FTI
SLB
NOV
82%
FTI
NKT.CO
PRYSMIAN.MI
18%
|
| Element Solutions | Solstice Advanced Materials | US | 240 | 43.64 | 41.59 | 42.70 | 36.73 | 40.09 | -8.1% | -13.2% | -16.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 6.4% | — | — | 997 | 2026-07-02 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -3% | — |
4063.T
APD
4185.T
DD
70%
MMM
HON
EVK.DE
EMN
30%
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 25 | 3.94 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 6.30 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 36.1% | 36.1% | 13.5% | 13.5% | — | 73% | 73% | 979 | 2026-05-28 | — | — | 5% | -14% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| Kenvue | Kimberly-Clark | US | 417 | 14.37 | 16.49 | 16.90 | 19.24 | 19.49 | 35.6% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 92% | 83% | 883 | 2025-10-31 | 2H26 | 2026-10-31 | 2% | 13% |
HLN
VTRS
CL
PG
42%
4911.T
EL
BEI.DE
OR.PA
27%
ESSITY-A.ST
PG
UL
31%
|
| Steadfast Group | Amwins Group | Australia | 10 | 3.95 | 4.55 | 4.55 | 5.11 | 6.00 | 51.9% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 17.4% | 17.4% | — | 39% | 39% | 811 | 2026-06-09 | — | — | 4% | -12% |
WTW
AON
MMC
AJG
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 73 | 43.52 | 43.44 | 43.44 | 47.34 | 52.98 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 41% | 37% | 774 | 2026-06-26 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -8% | 28% |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
|
| AvalonBay Communities | Equity Residential | US | 130 | 174.28 | 190.91 | 195.54 | 185.61 | 185.59 | 6.5% | -2.9% | -5.4% | -0.0% | -0.3% | — | — | — | 744 | 2026-04-27 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -2% | — |
INVH
UDR
CPT
ESS
|
| Globalstar | Amazon | US | 109 | 68.53 | 82.07 | 84.48 | 83.38 | 88.31 | 28.9% | 1.6% | -1.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 21% | — | 670 | 2026-04-01 | 2H27 | 2H27 | -6% | — |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
|
| easyJet | Castlelake | UK | 25 | 3.94 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 6.30 | 6.90 | 75.0% | 36.1% | 36.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | — | 79% | 79% | 667 | 2026-05-28 | — | — | 5% | -10% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 37 | 51.09 | 46.52 | 49.91 | 61.91 | 70.00 | 37.0% | 24.9% | 19.4% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 66% | 60% | 652 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 4% | -0% | — |
| Essential Utilities | American Water | US | 88 | 41.21 | 43.36 | 45.41 | 39.85 | 40.92 | -0.7% | -8.8% | -13.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 6.4% | — | — | 509 | 2025-10-24 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | 3% | — |
SVT.L
UU.L
PNN.L
VIE.PA
54%
NFG
OGS
NJR
ATO
46%
|
| TXNM Energy | Blackstone Infrastructure | US | 51 | 51.27 | 48.46 | 51.04 | 57.92 | 61.25 | 19.5% | 16.3% | 11.9% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 140.1% | 74% | 56% | 488 | 2025-03-04 | 1H27 | 2027-05-31 | -3% | 4% |
SO
FE
DUK
EXC
|