| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | CHANGES | COMPS | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 422 | 260.32 | 272.93 | 280.77 | 320.05 | 373.90 | 43.6% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 16.8% | 20.0% | 16.5% | 47% | 38% | 15,929 | 2025-07-16 | 2H27 | 2027-11-30 | -1% | -6% |
CNI
CSX
CP
601006.SS
|
| Warner Bros Discovery | Paramount Skydance | US | 470 | 12.54 | 7.94 | 9.87 | 28.10 | 31.00 | 147.2% | 71.7% | 64.9% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 17.1% | 87% | 84% | 7,925 | 2025-09-10 | 3Q26 | 2027-06-01 | -3% | -0% |
ATUS
CHTR
CABO
CMCSA
43%
CMCSA
LGF-A
DIS
CIDM
29%
CMCSA
DIS
NFLX
28%
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 339 | 61.73 | 62.80 | 66.65 | 64.47 | 66.84 | 8.3% | 2.6% | -3.4% | 3.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 41% | — | 4,595 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-30 | -0% | -31% |
FE
SO
GNE
DUK
|
| Banca Generali | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 11 | 66.25 | 60.10 | 60.10 | 63.65 | 82.22 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 29.2% | 17.6% | 42.2% | 16% | 24% | 3,237 | 2026-08-18 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -2% | -5% |
STJ.L
LPLA
RJF
SF
65%
HBAN
RF
CFG
KBC.BR
35%
|
| Axalta Coating Systems | AkzoNobel | US | 65 | 28.18 | 27.02 | 27.51 | 33.67 | 43.35 | 53.8% | 19.7% | 18.3% | 28.8% | -6.6% | — | 41% | — | 2,680 | 2025-11-17 | 4Q26 | 2026-11-30 | -5% | -8% |
PPG
SHW
RPM
|
| MGM Resorts International | People Incorporated (People Inc) | US | 95 | 43.67 | 40.52 | 40.52 | 39.83 | 48.30 | 10.6% | -1.7% | -1.7% | 21.3% | 21.3% | — | — | — | 2,633 | 2026-05-29 | — | — | -2% | — |
1128.HK
WYNN
ENT.L
PENN
54%
CHH
MAR
IHG.L
HLT
46%
|
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 246 | 35.11 | 54.49 | 54.97 | 66.25 | 70.30 | 97.9% | 14.7% | 17.0% | 6.1% | -2.5% | — | 62% | — | 2,130 | 2025-09-08 | 2H26 | 3Q26 | -3% | -17% |
SCCO
CSC.AX
FCX
0358.HK
61%
HINDZINC.NS
NYR.BR
S32.AX
TV.TO
39%
|
| eBay | GameStop | US | 558 | 104.07 | 103.52 | 103.52 | 108.99 | 113.43 | 9.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | — | 55% | 55% | 2,071 | 2026-05-01 | — | — | -4% | — |
4755.T
ETSY
BABA
SHOP.TO
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 52 | 51.09 | 58.24 | 61.65 | 50.00 | 70.00 | 37.0% | -19.0% | -23.3% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 178.0% | — | — | 1,706 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2026-12-06 | 3% | — |
ELV
MOH
100%
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 8 | 181.60 | 307.50 | 307.50 | 313.00 | 325.33 | 79.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | -3.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | — | 14% | 1,189 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -5% | — |
TTI
FTI
BKR
SLB
82%
FTI
NKT.CO
PRYSMIAN.MI
18%
|
| Arcadis | WSP Global | Netherlands | 6 | 35.32 | 39.25 | 39.25 | 43.04 | 52.55 | 48.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 22.1% | 22.1% | — | 28% | 28% | 1,145 | 2026-07-22 | — | — | -0% | -5% |
ACM
KBR
J
TTEK
|
| Kenvue | Kimberly-Clark | US | 689 | 14.37 | 16.36 | 16.77 | 17.91 | 17.99 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 8.4% | 95% | 72% | 967 | 2025-10-31 | 2H26 | 2026-12-31 | -1% | — |
HLN
VTRS
CL
PG
42%
4911.T
BEI.DE
OR.PA
PG
27%
ESSITY-A.ST
PG
UL
31%
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 55 | 22.20 | 31.98 | 32.91 | 29.72 | 35.00 | 57.7% | -7.6% | -10.7% | 17.8% | 20.7% | 124.0% | — | — | 874 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 5% | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
|
| Supernus Pharmaceuticals | Indivior Pharmaceuticals | US | 26 | 44.63 | 46.55 | 48.65 | 41.49 | 53.09 | 18.9% | -12.2% | -17.2% | 28.0% | -2.8% | — | — | — | 862 | 2026-07-31 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | -3% | — |
AZN
ABBV
NVS
4502.T
|
| Cleanaway Waste Management | EQT Infrastructure | Australia | 27 | 2.37 | 2.41 | 2.41 | 2.68 | 3.13 | 32.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 16.8% | 16.8% | — | 37% | 37% | 840 | 2026-08-12 | — | — | -1% | 14% |
WM
2151.T
CWST
GFL
70%
CLH
15%
GFL
PESI
RSG
CLH
15%
|
| UniFirst | Cintas | US | 105 | 170.16 | 172.35 | 187.93 | 270.07 | 310.03 | 82.2% | 36.2% | 30.4% | 14.8% | 15.4% | 36.6% | 71% | 66% | 807 | 2025-12-19 | 2H26 | 2027-02-15 | -4% | -2% |
VSTS
RTO.L
JSG.L
ELIS.PA
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 37 | 43.52 | 40.30 | 40.30 | 46.18 | 52.02 | 19.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 18.8% | 50% | 46% | 767 | 2026-06-26 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-07-01 | -1% | -8% |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
|
| Roku | Fox | US | 436 | 119.64 | 130.05 | 135.90 | 157.45 | 162.43 | 35.8% | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 85% | 77% | 757 | 2026-06-11 | 1H27 | 1H27 | 4% | 3% |
NFLX
FUBO
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 31 | 3.94 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 6.68 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 49.7% | 49.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 21.7% | 88% | 85% | 657 | 2026-05-28 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -1% | -6% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| Tate & Lyle | Ingredion | UK | 28 | 3.75 | 4.07 | 4.07 | 5.58 | 5.95 | 58.8% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 6.5% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 81% | 67% | 487 | 2026-05-13 | 2H27 | 2H27 | -2% | -13% |
KHC
UL
|