| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | COMPS | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 249 | 260.32 | 296.70 | 304.55 | 342.64 | 392.82 | 50.9% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 17.4% | 16.2% | 48% | 39% | 13,426 | 2025-07-16 | 2H27 | 2027-11-30 | -0% | 15% |
CNI
CSX
CP
9020.T
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 295 | 61.73 | 67.19 | 71.03 | 66.62 | 68.53 | 11.0% | -0.9% | -6.6% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | — | — | 3,911 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-30 | -2% | — |
FE
POR
GNE
DUK
|
| Banco BPM | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 60 | 16.73 | 15.03 | 15.03 | 13.56 | 17.15 | 2.5% | -10.8% | -10.8% | 26.5% | 13.6% | 47.3% | — | — | 3,153 | 2026-08-18 | 2027-02-15 | 2027-02-15 | -0% | — |
HBAN
RF
CFG
MTB
|
| Instacart | DoorDash | US | 1,059 | 51.68 | 48.90 | 52.66 | 56.45 | 65.00 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 47% | 31% | 1,992 | 2026-10-22 | 1H28 | 1H28 | -5% | — |
TTD
PUBM
MGNI
TBLA
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 38 | 51.09 | 73.15 | 76.05 | 43.92 | 70.00 | 37.0% | -66.6% | -73.1% | 59.4% | 59.4% | 747.4% | — | — | 1,506 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2026-12-01 | -3% | — |
601318.SS
ELV
FFH
LNC
MOH
100%
|
| Banca Generali | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 12 | 66.25 | 56.16 | 56.16 | 59.85 | 76.15 | 14.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 27.2% | 14.3% | 49.7% | 18% | 30% | 1,120 | 2026-08-18 | 2027-02-15 | 2027-02-15 | -2% | — |
RJF
SCHW
LPLA
STJ.L
65%
HBAN
RF
CFG
MTB
35%
|
| Mediobanca | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 19 | 18.15 | 16.90 | 16.90 | 25.63 | 26.81 | 47.7% | 34.1% | 34.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 132.7% | 88% | 88% | 1,104 | 2026-02-17 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 2% | 4% |
UPST
SOFI
AFRM
OMF
40%
RJF
SCHW
LPLA
STJ.L
31%
EVR
LAZ
MC
PJT
29%
|
| PTC | Schneider Electric | US | 292 | 144.03 | 160.76 | 160.76 | 195.54 | 205.00 | 42.3% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 79% | 79% | 1,085 | 2026-10-02 | 3Q27 | 3Q27 | 2% | 2% |
DSY.PA
ADSK
HEXA-B.ST
SIE.DE
|
| UniFirst | Cintas | US | 166 | 170.16 | 196.90 | 216.29 | 254.84 | 324.70 | 90.8% | 22.7% | 15.1% | 27.4% | 27.8% | 96.7% | 45% | 35% | 1,030 | 2025-12-19 | 4Q26 | 2027-02-15 | 2% | -22% |
VSTS
RTO.L
JSG.L
ELIS.PA
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 8 | 181.60 | 256.12 | 256.12 | 322.40 | 331.47 | 82.5% | 20.6% | 20.6% | -4.1% | 9.5% | 12.0% | — | 68% | 983 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 1% | — |
HAL
SLB
BKR
NOV
82%
FTI
PRYSMIAN.MI
NKT.CO
NEXANS.PA
18%
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 26 | 22.20 | 33.38 | 34.31 | 28.38 | 35.00 | 57.7% | -17.6% | -20.9% | 23.3% | 23.3% | 654.9% | — | — | 798 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 11% | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
2609.TW
|
| Roku | Fox | US | 441 | 119.64 | 89.92 | 95.77 | 155.12 | 157.30 | 31.5% | 42.0% | 38.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 97% | 94% | 595 | 2026-06-11 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -4% | — |
NFLX
FUBO
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 21 | 43.52 | 52.62 | 52.62 | 44.91 | 48.89 | 12.3% | -17.2% | -17.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 16.4% | — | — | 522 | 2026-06-26 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-07-01 | -17% | — |
VSAT
SESG.PA
ETL.PA
TSAT
|
| Canadian Utilities | Emera | Canada | 27 | 51.20 | 55.24 | 57.09 | 51.45 | 52.01 | 1.6% | -7.4% | -11.0% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | — | — | 486 | 2026-10-05 | 2H27 | 2H27 | 0% | — |
FE
POR
GNE
DUK
45%
ATO
OGS
SR
IG.MI
45%
PAA
MPLX
KMI
EPD
10%
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 44 | 3.94 | 3.12 | 3.12 | 6.81 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 54.1% | 54.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 24.3% | 92% | 89% | 477 | 2026-05-28 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | 3% | -4% |
LUV
RYAAY
JBLU
86%
BKNG
TCOM
EXPE
TRIP
14%
|
| Suzhou Jinfu Technology | Zhejiang Changfengce Enterprise Management | China | 13 | 4.40 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.87 | 6.20 | 40.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 60.2% | 60.2% | 1690.4% | 6% | 6% | 447 | 2026-08-20 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 0% | -12% |
FLEX
JBL
CLS.TO
SANM
56%
373220.KS
300750.SZ
1211.HK
6752.T
32%
KEYS
TER
KLAC
6857.T
12%
|
| Tate & Lyle | Ingredion | UK | 5 | 3.75 | 4.09 | 4.09 | 5.65 | 5.95 | 58.8% | 27.6% | 27.6% | 5.4% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 84% | 69% | 418 | 2026-05-13 | 2H27 | 2H27 | -2% | -11% |
KHC
UL
|
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 191 | 35.11 | 57.61 | 58.08 | 60.61 | 67.10 | 91.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 10.7% | 1.3% | — | 32% | 76% | 393 | 2025-09-08 | 2H26 | 3Q26 | -2% | — |
FCX
CSC.AX
ANTO.L
SCCO
61%
TV.TO
FOM.TO
EXN.TO
S32.AX
NYR.BR
39%
|
| Caesars Entertainment | Fertitta Entertainment | US | 184 | 20.77 | 18.03 | 19.58 | 29.09 | 31.00 | 49.3% | 38.0% | 32.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 85% | 83% | 390 | 2026-02-25 | 2H27 | 2027-06-30 | 5% | 1% |
LVS
MGM
WYNN
PENN
71%
MAR
HLT
IHG.L
H
17%
DKNG
KIND-SDB.ST
888.L
GAMB
12%
|
| Peet | Ingenia Communities Group | Australia | 2 | 1.70 | 1.71 | 1.73 | 1.40 | 2.48 | 45.8% | -22.5% | -23.5% | 77.0% | 77.1% | 2165.7% | — | — | 355 | 2026-07-09 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 1% | — |
DHI
LEN
PHM
NVR
79%
INVH
TCN.TO
BAM
AMH
21%
|